A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This paper analyzed the impact of agricultural export on economic growth in Nigeria. The study spanned from 1985 to 2022. The time series data used for the study were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin various issues 2022 and Federal Bureau of Statistics. The study’s analysis used ADF structural break unit root test. Therefore, the test indicated a structural break. The estimated break point represents the time at which the behavior of the time series changes significantly. More so, the ADF test revealed that the variables were integrated of different order I(0) and I(1), which gives credence to the adoption of ARDL bound cointegration estimate. Additionally, the presence of a significant error correction term indicates a long-run relationship between the variables. The ARDL long-run regression result provided presents the relationship between the dependent variable RGDP (Real Gross Domestic Product) and several independent variables over the long run. The long-run regression results suggest that variables such as COXP, RUXP, and CROP have significant long-run effects on RGDP, while the variable PMKX and the constant term do not appear to have significant long-run impacts. Additionally, the high R-squared and adjusted R-squared values indicate a very good fit of the regression model to the data. The ecm(-1) coefficient, which captures the speed of adjustment process towards the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables is significant. A significant coefficient suggests the presence of cointegration between the variables in the long run. The study concluded that agricultural export exerts influence on Nigeria economic growth for the period under study. The study recommended that, given the significant short-run and long-run effects of agricultural exports on RGDP, policymakers should prioritize investment in the agricultural sector.